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This post is a synthesis of 11 Metaculus analyses run between Oct 2024 and May 2026, seeking to summarize everything we know about AI forecasting and how to do it well. Conclusions from other papers, blogs, and benchmarks are also discussed in order to give a comprehensive overview of the...
Spring AI Forecasting Benchmark is Starting Over the last year and a half, Metaculus has been running a series of tournaments to benchmark AI's accuracy in predicting future events. These tournaments pit frontier models, bot developers, and a human baseline against each other to collectively push the boundaries of forecasting...
Main Takeaways Top Findings: * Pro forecasters significantly outperform bots: Our team of 10 Metaculus Pro Forecasters demonstrated superior performance compared to the top-10 bot team, with strong statistical significance (p = 0.00001) based on a one-sided t-test on Peer scores. * The bot team did not improve significantly in...
By Ben Wilson and John Bash from Metaculus Main Takeaways Top Findings: * Pro forecasters significantly outperform bots: Our team of 10 Metaculus Pro Forecasters demonstrated superior performance compared to the top-10 bot team, with strong statistical significance (p = 0.001) based on a one-sided t-test on spot peer scores....