Spring AI Forecasting Benchmark is Starting Over the last year and a half, Metaculus has been running a series of tournaments to benchmark AI's accuracy in predicting future events. These tournaments pit frontier models, bot developers, and a human baseline against each other to collectively push the boundaries of forecasting...
Main Takeaways Top Findings: * Pro forecasters significantly outperform bots: Our team of 10 Metaculus Pro Forecasters demonstrated superior performance compared to the top-10 bot team, with strong statistical significance (p = 0.00001) based on a one-sided t-test on Peer scores. * The bot team did not improve significantly in...
By Ben Wilson and John Bash from Metaculus Main Takeaways Top Findings: * Pro forecasters significantly outperform bots: Our team of 10 Metaculus Pro Forecasters demonstrated superior performance compared to the top-10 bot team, with strong statistical significance (p = 0.001) based on a one-sided t-test on spot peer scores....
Over the last year and a half, Metaculus has been running a series of tournaments to benchmark AI's accuracy in predicting future events. These tournaments pit frontier models, bot developers, and a human baseline against each other to collectively push the boundaries of forecasting performance. We are quickly approaching the end of the Fall Bot Tournament and are now prepping for the Spring Bot Tournament!
Joining the tournament is a great way to help further innovation and learning in the AI forecasting space (contributing to AI-safety and decision-making applications), hone your AI development skills, and earn rewards for strong performance!
For those new to our benchmarking efforts, here... (read 988 more words →)
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By Ben Wilson and John Bash from Metaculus
Top Findings:
Other Findings