Introduction

This post will hopefully serve to illustrate a common pattern I see, one of those things that you see everywhere once you figure it out. I would be surprised if most people who read this haven't had the same thoughts as me, but maybe the direction I take the concepts will be different than those people. Of course, those people will have directions of their own. If that's you, feel free to put your insight in the comments.

So, what are the concepts I'm introducing?
The first is Levels of Thought. HPMOR readers will recognize this from Eliezer Yudkowsky's excellent description of the concept:

(Professor Quirrell had remarked over their lunch that Harry really needed to conceal his state of mind better than putting on a blank face when someone discussed a dangerous topic, and had explained about one-level deceptions, two-level deceptions, and so on. So either Severus was in fact modeling Harry as a one-level player, which made Severus himself two-level, and Harry's three-level move had been successful; or Severus was a four-level player and wanted Harry to think the deception had been successful. Harry, smiling, had asked Professor Quirrell what level he played at, and Professor Quirrell, also smiling, had responded, One level higher than you.)

Honestly, this might be all you need to understand the concept, but my explanation might make the concept more accessible to real-world discussions, especially "Levels of Thought In Real Life".

The other concept is being blindsided. I explain what this is, how it ties into the Dunning-Kruger effect, and why it might not be such a bad thing in "Being Blindsided By Higher Level Thinkers (Falling Off Mount Stupid)"

This is in fact my first post. Thank you for reading it!

What Is A Level Of Thought?

The Situation

Imagine that you are sitting in the back room of a shady bar, watching a game of Texas Hold'em play out between four players: A, B, C and D.
The hole cards are dealt, and A immediately bets 3 times the standard base amount.
The remaining players are faced with an immediate question: how good is A's hand?

B, a rather simple man, thinks that A must have a good hand: Why else would he stake such a large amount on the first turn?

C, a slightly shrewder fellow, suspects deception. "Aha!" he thinks, "He's trying to trick me into thinking he has a good hand to make me fold, so he can take the blinds ...

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