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[Link] The law of effect, randomization and Newcomb’s problem

3mo
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Are causal decision theorists trying to outsmart conditional probabilities?

1y
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Publication on formalizing preference utilitarianism in physical world models

3y
1 min read
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Two-boxing, smoking and chewing gum in Medical Newcomb problems

3y
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93

Request for feedback on a paper about (machine) ethics

4y
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Naturalized induction – a challenge for evidential and causal decision theory

8mo
6 min read
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[Link] A survey of polls on Newcomb’s problem

8mo
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Recent Comments

I list some relevant discussions of the "anvil problem" etc. [here](https://casparoesterheld.com/overview-introductions-to-the-problem-of-naturalized-agency/). In particular, [Soares and Fallenstein (2014)](https://intelligence.org/files/Botworld.pdf) seem to have implemented an environment in which...(read more)

For this round I submit the following entries on decision theory:

[Robust Program Equilibrium](https://casparoesterheld.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/robustprogramequilibria.pdf) (paper)

_[The law of effect, randomization and Newcomb’s problem](https://casparoesterheld.com/2018/02/15/the-law-of-effe...(read more)

(RobbBB seems to refer to what philosophers call the B-theory of time, whereas CronoDAS seems to refer to the A-theory of time.)

I tried to run this with racket and #lang scheme (as well as #lang racket) but didn't get it to work (though I didn't try for very long), perhaps because of backward compatibility issues. This is a bit unfortunate because it makes it harder for people interested in this topic to profit from the resu...(read more)

I wonder what people here think about the resolution proposed by Schwarz (2014). His analysis is that the divergence from the optimal policy also goes away if one combines EDT with the halfer position a.k.a. the self-sampling assumption, which, as shown by Briggs (2010), appears to be the right anth...(read more)

I think this is a good overview, but most of the views proposed here seem contentious and the arguments given in support shouldn't suffice to change the mind of anyone who has thought about these questions for a bit or who is aware of the disagreements about them within the community. Getting alignm...(read more)

The issue with this example (and many similar ones) is that to decide between interventions on a variable X from the outside, EDT needs an additional node representing that outside intervention, whereas Pearl-CDT can simply do(X) without the need for an additional variable. If you do add these varia...(read more)

This advice is very similar to Part, 1, ch. 3; Part 3, ch. 5; Part 4, ch. 1, 6 in Dale Carnegie's classic How to Win Friends and Influence People.

Another classic on this topic by a community member is Brian Tomasik's Turn Discussions Into Blog Posts.

I looked at the version 2017-12-30 10:48:11Z. Overall, I think it's a nice, systematic overview. Below are some comments.

I should note that I'm not very expert on these things. This is also why the additional literature I mention is mostly weakly related stuff from FRI, the organization I work for...(read more)