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I wish I had recorded my thoughts the week before they removed most of their remaining restrictions.  They were something like "only 20% of adults haven't been vaccinated, they're working down the age distribution, and they're infecting as fast as the winter.  At some point, they just have to run out of people."  I thus vaguely expected things to drop, especially as they had turned around before.

One, they're just running out of susceptibles, two, a shorter serial interval means that everything up and down happens faster and the R value is likely not as higher as it would be if you did not take this into account, and three... a good bet has been to expect authorities to be wrong.

I don't even understand what Thiel is trying to say, which is pretty typical.

The 'not a half life' graph is an IgM graph, not an IgG graph.  IgG is the one produced in large amounts for long periods, IgM is always transient.  When anyone is talking about half lives, they're probably talking about IgG.

The 'effectiveness drop' data from Pfizer, from what I understand, is confounded by changes in the dominant lineages infecting people over time.

Endorsed by someone who has been reading the literature obsessively.  The NTD can still get some mileage but most of the really interesting stuff has happened.

Not yet, I used the Google project where they are posting predicted structures of every known human and yeast gene.


The example that made me laugh:


Personally, I can confirm that every yeast protein I work with that does not have a structure, when fed through alphafold produces absolute garbage with mean predicted errors on the order of ten or twenty angstroms and obvious nonsense in the structure.  

Granted I work with a lot of repetitive poorly structured proteins which, in as model-system of an organism as yeast, are the only ones without structures and someone has to get unlucky... but still.

Honestly I think it's quite the opposite.  There is no particular reason that lineages that escape immune reactions would be more likely to be driven into existence in a population largely vaccinated or largely infected, and you don't talk about this in the context of people who have been naturally infected.  

We are pulling the inevitable, the time that everyone has immune memory, closer in time to the present and ensuring that we get there with fewer rounds of viral replication in the mean time.

Could the fact that both anecdotes involve large groups simultaneously support the model of correlation and clustering presumably from single extremely infectious sources?

Combined with observations of significantly decreased contagiousness from vaccinated people I would expect such events to become much rarer when completely naive people are rare.  Consider the dynamics here, ~6 apparently infected in one event and then only two of those continuing to pass it on at all, a sub-replacement chain in that different context.

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