What weird beliefs do you have?

I think there could be a 5% chance that the paleocene-eocene thermal maximum 55 million years ago was the result of a prior global industrial civilization.  Conditional on that being the case, high probability they were birds and a decent possibility they lived on Antarctica.

We are an existence proof for smart industrial animals being a thing that can happen on Earth.  We are not an existence proof of smart industrial animals lasting for geologically long periods of time.  There is not necessarily reason to think that just because you are successful in an epoch that you burn the black rocks that you will continue to be so.

As you go back in time the fossil record degrades drastically and many species at this time are known from single digit numbers of specimens.  The PETM resembles what we are doing to the earth system entirely too closely, from a large release of biogenic carbon within a few thousand years to the spike in mercury levels to ocean anoxia.  At the time primates did not exist in significant diversity and any that did exist were tiny, but birds, whose brains differ from the default tetrapod brains in ways quite similar to the way that of primates do and allows very easy increase in neuron number, did exist in profound diversity. 

We are tropical animals and spread across the entire world because we came from the hottest place on Earth and you can keep us warm just by wrapping us in clothes in a low-tech way.  If somebody evolved on the coldest parts of Earth, you need high technology (refrigeration) to survive anywhere else and they could be limited to polar latitudes, including the only continent we have almost no geological record of and has been poorly explored - Antarctica.  Antarctica and nearby continents also bore multiple great-ape-sized flightless bird lineages at this time, and was temperate while Canada was full of Amazon-style rainforest and the equator bore stifling hot supertropics.

Corollary:  Industrial civilization is an unstable self-limiting phenomenon and will be gone in centuries to millennia.

What weird beliefs do you have?

A significant set of possible models of such phenomena result in them being irreducibly personal and subjective, hampering detailed analysis.

Covid 4/9: Another Vaccine Passport Objection

The molecular details are not of a type that is caused by the pill.

Covid 4/9: Another Vaccine Passport Objection

These blood clots are unusual and triggered by immune-mediated platelet activation, and happening at higher rate than the base population in those subpopulations.  It's real and not the pill.


It's also lower than the risk of the pill.

Covid 4/9: Another Vaccine Passport Objection

No sane major corporation is going to have a batch of 15 million doses and not test it to see if it is the thing it was meant to be before shipping it out, and having something in there that wasn’t supposed to be there should get found many times over by the tests they’d run in all worlds. Ordinary corporate reputation and liability are more than enough to motivate catching this error. 


A company bought by Bayer shipped out many doses of blood products that they knew were contaminated with HIV.

By which mechanism does immunity favor new Covid variants?

Taking this off in a different direction.

The selection pressure driving these things into existence is HIGHLY convergent all around the world, with about four mutations appearing again and again and again.  This is adaptation to the human host, not really evolution for immune evasion, especially considering that only like 30% of most populations at most has been infected.

You would expect immune evasion selection to be wildly divergent rather than convergent.  What is mostly happening is an interaction between the fact that regions of spike protein that are on the surface of the spike and are involved in host interactions are evolving to do do well in a new host, and the fact that these functional regions of host interaction are under many selective pressures and more likely to be 'sticky' and places where functionally important antibodies tend to bind.  Slight immune evasion is a side effect, not what drove them into existence in the first place, for the most part.

Dark Matters

Additionally, there's no reason to assume that all dark matter is just one thing.  There could be multiple things going on, as long as most of the things going on don't self-interact.

Heck, for that matter there could be a small (!) dark sector that DOES self-interact as long as its total mass was within the error bars for baryonic mass inferred from primordial nucleosynthesis.

Competent Elites

The reason the power elite don't talk to mortals is they don't want competition

Covid 3/4: Declare Victory and Leave Home

I remain extremely angry at the lack of clinical trials for indomethacin as an outpatient treatment.

What's your best alternate history utopia?

The Bretton Woods conference adopted Keynes' Bancor as the currency of international trade rather than the US dollar.  This encouraged industrial development much more evenly across the world and prevented large amounts of the imbalanced financial flows that have given certain countries exorbitant power over others, driven others into the resource trap, and driven still others into foreign-denominated debt spirals.

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