CharlesD

Estimates of GPU or equivalent resources of large AI players for 2024/5

AI infrastructure numbers are hard to find with any precision. There are many reported numbers of “[company] spending Xbn on infrastructure this quarter” and “[company] has bought 100k H100s or “has a cluster of 100k H100s” but when I went looking for an estimate of how much compute a given company had access to, I could not find consistent numbers available. Here I’ve tried to pull together information from a variety of sources to get ballpark estimates of (i) as of EOY 2024, who do we expect to have how much compute? and (ii) how do we expect that to change in 2025? I then spend a little time talking about what that might mean for training compute availability at the main frontier labs. Before going into this, I want to lay out a few caveats: * These numbers are all estimates I’ve made from publicly available data, in limited time, and are likely to contain errors and miss some important information somewhere. * There are very likely much better estimates available from paywalled vendors, who can spend more time going into detail of how many fabs there are, what each fab is likely producing, where the data centers are and how many chips are in each one, and other detailed minutiae and come to much more accurate numbers. This is not meant to be a good substitute for that, and if you need very accurate estimates I suggest you go pay one of several vendors for that data. With that said, let’s get started. Nvidia chip production The first place to start is by looking at the producers of the most important data center GPUs, Nvidia. As of November 21st, after Nvidia reported 2025 Q3 earnings[1] calendar year Data Center revenues for Nvidia look to be around $110bn. This is up from $42bn in 2023, and is projected to be $173bn in 2025 (based on this estimate of $177bn for fiscal 2026).[2] Data Center revenues are overwhelmingly based on chip sales. 2025 chip sales are estimated to be 6.5-7m GPUs, which will almost entirely be Hopper and Blackwell models. I have est

61Nov 28, 2024

Estimating METR Time Horizons for Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT 5.3 Codex (xhigh)

33Feb 16

An examination of Metaculus' resolved AI predictions and their implications for AI timelines

28Jul 20, 2021

Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience

25May 27, 2021

CharlesD

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Experienced quant trader, based in London. Formerly a volunteer at Rethink Priorities, where I did some forecasting research. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/charles_dillon

207

Estimating METR Time Horizons for Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT 5.3 Codex (xhigh)

Note: Appendix re-analysing with the addition of Gemini 3.1 data added 20/02/26 - this substantially changed the results One of the most attended to benchmarks for any new model these days is the METR estimated time horizon for “a diverse set of multi-step software and reasoning tasks”[1]. This comes in...

Feb 1633

An interactive toy model for exploring AI's effect on the labour market

If it can be done by AI, it probably will be Cross posted from my Substack. Introduction I found myself in a discussion over the holidays with Seb Krier from Google DeepMind about what factors will be most important in determining the effect of powerful AI on the labour market....

Jan 712

On negotiated settlements vs conflict with misaligned AGI

cross posted from my Substack Introduction Following on from my last post on Comparative Advantage & AGI, more discussion on whether you might go hungry in a post AGI world. This time, we are looking at a hypothetical world where AGI has been developed and is in some sense misaligned:...

Nov 24, 202518

On Comparative Advantage & AGI

Cross-posted from my substack. Epistemic status: pretty confident, but willing to believe I’ve missed something somehow, hoping somebody smart will point it out if so. Level: pretty introductory, though assumes a bit of economics knowledge - if you’ve thought carefully or extensively about this particular topic I don’t expect you...

Nov 17, 202511

Estimates of GPU or equivalent resources of large AI players for 2024/5

Nov 28, 202461

How does forecast quantity impact forecast quality on Metaculus?

Cross-posted from the EA Forum Introduction Many people, myself included, worry about how much we can trust aggregate forecasts (e.g., the Metaculus community median) that are based on the predictions of only a small number of individuals. This consideration also came up in my recent post analysing predictions of future...

Oct 1, 20218

What could small scale disasters from AI look like?

If an AI system or systems goes wrong in the near term and causes harm to humans in a way which is consistent with or supportive of alignment being a big deal, what might it look like? I'm asking because I'm curious about potential fire-alarm scenarios (including things which just...

Aug 31, 202114

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CharlesD

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Estimates of GPU or equivalent resources of large AI players for 2024/5

Estimating METR Time Horizons for Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT 5.3 Codex (xhigh)

An examination of Metaculus' resolved AI predictions and their implications for AI timelines

Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience

CharlesD

Estimating METR Time Horizons for Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT 5.3 Codex (xhigh)

An interactive toy model for exploring AI's effect on the labour market

On negotiated settlements vs conflict with misaligned AGI

On Comparative Advantage & AGI

Estimates of GPU or equivalent resources of large AI players for 2024/5

How does forecast quantity impact forecast quality on Metaculus?

What could small scale disasters from AI look like?

Estimates of GPU or equivalent resources of large AI players for 2024/5

Estimating METR Time Horizons for Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT 5.3 Codex (xhigh)

An examination of Metaculus' resolved AI predictions and their implications for AI timelines

Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience

Estimating METR Time Horizons for Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT 5.3 Codex (xhigh)

An interactive toy model for exploring AI's effect on the labour market

On negotiated settlements vs conflict with misaligned AGI

On Comparative Advantage & AGI

Estimates of GPU or equivalent resources of large AI players for 2024/5

How does forecast quantity impact forecast quality on Metaculus?

What could small scale disasters from AI look like?