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How will AI reshape the future of work, and how fast will those changes arrive? These are genuinely hard forecasting problems with high stakes for workers, employers, educators, and policymakers. There's surprisingly little consensus on what to expect, even among people who study this closely. Metaculus has launched the Labor...
A federal judge found probable cause the Trump administration willfully defied a court order on deportation flights to El Salvador. The contempt probe intensified this week as the judge presses for whistleblower and DOJ testimony on who ordered the flights and how the government responded. That case, along with related...
Metaculus is looking for an experienced leader from the consulting¹ world to grow our consulting practice, helping organizations use forecasting to make better decisions on critical global challenges. * Find the full job description and apply here. * Start Date: As soon as possible, but with significant flexibility for the...
Following encouraging Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2 results, we've launched the next round of our experiment in aggregating market forecasts: the Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3. The Market Pulse Challenge is designed to test whether community forecasts contain tradable signal. More data is needed, but the Community Prediction's performance in Q2 was...
AI 2027 is a forecasting scenario by Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, and Romeo Dean. It predicts AI agents will begin automating AI research and development in 2027, triggering an intelligence explosion and arms race between the US and China. Most cognitive work becomes automated by 2027-2028,...
By Benjamin Wilson, Research Automation Engineer at Metaculus Main Findings: * Automated prompt optimization techniques create noticeable improvements in forecasting for some large language models, but not others. * There were statistically significant forecasting improvements found when applying an optimizer to GPT-4.1-nano, moderate improvements to GPT-4.1, and no improvements for...
We're excited to announce the Metaculus Cup series, an evolution of our Quarterly Cup tournaments with an enhanced prize pool of $5,000! Want to level up your forecasting skills, build your reputation, contribute to clarity on the news of the day, and compete for cash prizes? Join the Metaculus Cup!...