David Oks published a well-written essay yesterday arguing that the current panic about AI job displacement is overblown. I agree with a few of his premises (and it’s nice to see that we’re both fans of Lars Tunbjörk), but disagree with most of them and arrive at very different conclusions....
Most predictive work on AI focuses on model capabilities themselves or their effects on society at large. We have timelines for benchmark performance, scaling curves, and macro-level labor impact estimates. What we largely do not have are personalized forecasts that translate those trends into implications for an individual role. At...
Crossposted from my Substack Last week, someone at an ad agency told me that they don’t contract storyboard artists anymore. AI image generators can spit out a “good enough” reference image from the same prompts the agency would give to the contractors. Even though AI is not as good as...