Recently, Covid vaccine sceptics have enjoyed a growing profile. In an article on Bari Weiss’s Substack, Vinay Prasad and John Mandrola draw attention to sudden deaths and studies which link the vaccine with myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle. Reading such articles, I can say little in response; Prasad...
1. Recurrently, humans respond to change in a conservative manner, established traditions protecting against unsettling developments. To a great extent, the reasonableness of conservative responses hinges upon external conditions, change being more rational in certain ages. Today, we may be living in an age in which conservatism is more reasonable....
Much political commentary is highly misleading. Though media evaluation of policy agendas and the conduct of politicians tends to be better, analysis of policy effects and the role of parties is very poor, even in the ‘quality’ press. When assessing policy records, commentators tend to mistake noise for the effects...
Recently, Covid vaccine sceptics have enjoyed a growing profile. In an article on Bari Weiss’s Substack, Vinay Prasad and John Mandrola draw attention to sudden deaths and studies which link the vaccine with myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle. Reading such articles, I can say little in response; Prasad is a professor of epidemiology and Mandrola is a practicing cardiologist and their arguments seem reasonable.
But Covid vaccine sceptics will probably never convince me.
This reflects my attitude to expertise and its institutional foundations. Whilst I have followed debates about the vaccine somewhat, my knowledge is very limited. I am not a medical expert, my inability to counter the arguments of Prasad and... (read 731 more words →)
Moral foundations theory suggests that we're all clever arguers...
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Recurrently, humans respond to change in a conservative manner, established traditions protecting against unsettling developments. To a great extent, the reasonableness of conservative responses hinges upon external conditions, change being more rational in certain ages.
Today, we may be living in an age in which conservatism is more reasonable. This reflects increasing doubt about the ability of politics to achieve change. Following a replication crisis which suggests that many academic results are spurious or overestimated, there are fewer reasons to trust policy interventions.
Relatedly, there is growing confidence in the integrity of human institutions. In recent years, cultural evolution theory has demonstrated the role of cultural inheritance in adapting species to social and biological environments. Moreover,... (read 2429 more words →)
I think that's true to some extent, but structural variables are often found to be significant influences upon policy outcomes and to a greater degree than parties.
Much political commentary is highly misleading. Though media evaluation of policy agendas and the conduct of politicians tends to be better, analysis of policy effects and the role of parties is very poor, even in the ‘quality’ press. When assessing policy records, commentators tend to mistake noise for the effects of policy interventions, research suggesting that performance metrics are mostly outside the control of politicians.
Why would this be? If societies are to function optimally, should they not use information which conforms tightly with reality? As cultural evolution theory emphasizes, the most efficient societies tend to outcompete alternatives, good information being crucial to this.
In the case of political commentary, better information is... (read 1642 more words →)