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Also this entire post by Duncan Sabien

(@ Tech Executives, Policymakers & Researches)

Back in February 2020, the vast majority of people didn't see the global event of Covid coming, even though all the signs were there. All it took was a fresh look at the evidence and some honest extrapolation.

Looking at recent AI progress, it seems very possible that we're in the "February of 2020" of AI.

(original argument by Duncan Sabien, rephrased)

 (@ Tech Executives, Policymakers & Researches)

If you genuinely believe that the world is ending in 20 years, but are not visibily affected by this, or considering extreme actions, people may be less likely to believe that you believe what you say you do.

 

IMO, that's not the bottleneck. The bottleneck is people thinking you're insane, which composure mitigates.

"Every paper published is a shot fired in a war"

Epistemic virtue isn't a good strategy in that war, I suspect. Voicing your true best guesses is disincentivized unless you can prove them.

Fishbach & Dhar find that re-framing the achievement in terms of showing commitment to values, rather than progress toward goals, has a tendency to reinforce the behavior rather than the paradoxical self-licensing effect.

Hm. Does that mean "Rationality is about winning" is ultimately a bad mantra?

Good stuff.

Speculation time: Would this predict that shame-prone people have bigger, deeper identities? Identities seem like a good place for storing those justifications, and those justifications look like a candidate for the reason we have identities in the first place.

Shame appears to be a reaction to perceived norm violation, so shame-prone people would be those with strong and restrictive internalized social norms.

I don't mind self-help-books-level advice if it pointedly helps me improve my mental hygene. It did.

Which is perhaps most efficiently achieved by killing the wisher and returning an arbitrary inanimate object.

Personal experience / opinion: For me sleeping positions are an issue of expanded (back) or contracted (side) body language.

In an expanded state I seem to have a lower threshold for cognitive dissonance. I.e. my mind is less prone to indulging in pleasant-but-at-odds-with-reality thought trains. So I, for mental health reasons, try to fall asleep on my back when I can manage to tolerate the expanded state.

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