or: Invisible Social Consensus is Real And Can Hurt You
Related: Annoyingly Principled People, and what befalls them, both in terms of the claim being made, and in that I am certainly being Alice and/or Alex here.
I think the biggest blind spot most people have about how they make decisions, both for what they do and what they care about, is the passive role of social pressure. Active social pressure is annoying, and most people recognize it, and can, if they so choose, push back. There are several problems there; you have to recognize that social pressure and social reality are separate from physical reality, and you have to notice what you yourself want, and distinguish that from what you’re told to want, and you have to actually find it in you to push back. Not easy. But the benefits, at a certain level of intelligence, become obvious: Doing only the things your environment rewards is a bad way to accomplish anything novel, and every improvement is a change. For that and other reasons, many people achieve this. (And good for them!)
But that’s not actually the end of pushing back against social pressure. It’s a good start, becoming the unreasonable man who insists on adapting your circumstances to yourself. But you still have a trap: passive social pressure defines what it is to be reasonable. It is not a fight you can win once, like a lot of active pressure; it is constant gravity you have to constantly be wary of. You have to actively cultivate the environment of people you care about, to fight it, and I’m not sure if ‘good people at home, worse people at work’ works.
Let me give an example. Nate Silver is one of the most consistently accurate and unreasonable people in media. He follows the data to its conclusion, and when he doesn’t, he owns up to it and commits harder to being correct. I respect him about as much as I respect anyone in journalism, on Substack or elsewhere.[1] When he built FiveThirtyEight from a solo anonymous blog into a larger journalis