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When you first read about AI risk, it sounds like science fiction, and I'm used to slowly working my way around to the topic, so that I don't sound like a lunatic. But the past week has really changed the conversation! Some of the highlights: * Coxon triggered a preference...
The AI Risk grantmakers do not act like they believe in imminent existential risk from AI The idea of "revealed preferences" is one of the most useful in economics; it allows us to cut through a great deal of metaphysical angst about what someone "really" believes, and focus on what...
If you want people to actually read what you are posting, you should send the costly signal showing it isn't slop. Crossposted from canaryinstitute.ai/blog/send-me-the-prompt. I just saw a Xeet on Xitter [1] that explained the most efficient compression algorithm I've ever seen: Like a lot of good humor, it contains...
How the "Glass Perimeter" could enable AI treaties Crossposted from canaryinstitute.ai/blog/cant-trust-then-verify. Thanks to Naci Cankaya for reviewing an earlier draft of this post; I'm deliberately simplifying many aspects for conceptual clarity, and any mistakes are mine. He also asked me to emphasize that this is a proposal, and many pieces...
How smart is AI right now? Crossposted from canaryinstitute.ai/blog/what-ai-scores. A few months ago, a friend of mine pointed out that we're entering an interesting phase: AI is going to be smarter than us, and we're not going to know how much smarter. Up until now, our measurements of AI capabilities...
Crossposted from canaryinstitute.ai/blog/lessons-from-vannevar. Related LW pieces on AI Safety field-building and the push-vs-pull question. Related posts * A system overview for near-term, low-trust AI compute verification — Naci Cankaya. A concrete example of the verification work built on Aumann and Lindell's covert-adversary framework that this essay cites. * AI Safety...
Crossposted from canaryinstitute.ai/blog/biggest-bet-in-history. Related posts * AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years — Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, J. Zachary Mazlish. The canonical statement of "interest rates as a revealed-preference indicator of AGI timing"; this piece is the capex-side companion....