DanielFilan

Sequences

AXRP - the AI X-risk Research Podcast

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Could we do your $350 to my $100? And the voiding condition makes sense.

FWIW the polling in Virginia is pretty close - I'd put my $x against your $4x that Trump wins Virginia, for x <= 200. Offer expires in 48 hours.

You could but (a) it's much harder constitutionally in the US (governments can only be sued if they consent to being sued, maybe unless other governments are suing them) and (b) the reason for thinking this proposal works is modelling affected actors as profit-maximizing, which the government probably isn't.

Further note: this policy doesn't work to regulate government-developed AGI, which is a major drawback if you expect the government to develop AGI. It also probably lowers the relative cost for the government to develop AGI, which is a major drawback if you think the private sector would do a better job of responsible AGI development than the government.

Yeah, sadly AFAICT it just takes hours of human time to produce good transcripts.

I think I care about the video being easier to watch more than I care about missing the ums and ahs? But maybe I'm not appreciating how much umming you do.

Oh: it would be sad if there were a bunch of frivolous suits for this. One way to curb that without messing up optionality would be to limit such suits to large enough intermediate disasters.

Note that this podcast was recorded May 22, before Kelsey Piper’s expose on NDAs

I don't understand this - [Kelsey's initial expose](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/5/17/24158478/openai-departures-sam-altman-employees-chatgpt-release) was published on the 18th. Do you mean "before her second post" or something?

+1 that the transcript is rough. Unfortunately it's just pretty expensive to create one that's decent to read - for $1.50/min (so like $95 for this episode) you can get an OK transcript from rev.com within 24 hours, and then if you want to actually eliminate typos, you just have to go over it yourself.

I'd also encourage you to not use the descript feature that cuts out all ums and ahs - it just makes it sound super disjointed (especially when watching the video).

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