What it says on the title. Are there any prediction markets around where one can bet money on things such as the total amount of confirmed Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. by June, the date on which a vaccine will be released to the public, whether hydroxychloroquine is a viable...
Crossposted from my personal Tumblr. This is how one does cross posts, right? -- This is going to be a pretty serious article. I very recently listened to a long video on youtube, discussing a case of emotional abuse in close detail, through chat logs and publicly available info on...
Epistemic status: anecdotal evidence which I believe can be generalized. – An insight I had in the last few months is that self-confidence has a positive side-effect above and beyond the positive qualities usually associated with it. What I mean is: we've all heard of “just believe in yourself” is...
Wait, but airport scanners HAVE reached this type of analysis level - the only problem is that do so the x-ray emitter has to rotate around the bag (or the car in this instance) to create a 3D model of the objects within, which is then used to estimate density to a high degree - and from there things became much easier.
Of course, they're used to analyze bags, not cars, and the objects have to pass within...but still
What it says on the title.
Are there any prediction markets around where one can bet money on things such as the total amount of confirmed Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. by June, the date on which a vaccine will be released to the public, whether hydroxychloroquine is a viable treatment drug, etc. etc.?
Predictit only has politics-adjacent bets, and I don't know of any other publicly available places one can bet on such things.
What is Nvc? Google fails me :-\
Thank you!
Your comment really shone light into things that were cloudy, it's a great help :-)
Crossposted from my personal Tumblr. This is how one does cross posts, right?
--
This is going to be a pretty serious article.
I very recently listened to a long video on youtube, discussing a case of emotional abuse in close detail, through chat logs and publicly available info on the behaviour of each member of the couple.
I won’t link directly to the video-it’s tangentially about a fantastically controversial affair, and I’d prefer not to catch the attention of a segment of the internet which could and would gleefully ruin my life-but the observation raised during it feel to me very valid. If you hold a different opinion, please let me know, being exposed to... (read 856 more words →)
I might actually write such a post, but I see it as being more...parallel to this concept? Aimed in the same direction at least.
And the reason I wrote this is because it's my gut instinct that people starting out in a new field or job are more likely to suffer from underconfidence than overconfidence, which steals their time and resources.
Reading these comments, it seems obvious to me now that I should have framed it more in terms of who it was primarily addressed to; aside from the fact that this is advice I wish I'd heard some years in the past.
Edited to be more in line with what you said; edit was late because edit function doesn't seem to work on mobile.
-
Thank you for pointing out my mistake! You're right that that definition is precious. I'd only absorbed it in its already mutated version because my brain autocompleted it that way. Gonna think about this a bit.
Epistemic status: anecdotal evidence which I believe can be generalized.
–
An insight I had in the last few months is that self-confidence has a positive side-effect above and beyond the positive qualities usually associated with it. What I mean is: we've all heard of “just believe in yourself” is the panacea to nearly everything: this is about something different.
Self-confidence is an invaluable way of doing things quickly and efficiently, saving mental resources.
To illustrate my point, I’ll use a real life example: when encountering a problem during work (or study, or starting a relationship, or something else) a person with low confidence will usually agonize over what to do, seek outside advice, validation or... (read 364 more words →)
This is a topic I am very interested in and would like to see explored in depth, but the huge wall of text at the beginning (and in other parts) meant I couldn't read this article.
Please chop this into paragraphs.
You have been revived.
At first, everything seems pretty swell: people from all over come to talk to you, you've been tapped to reconstruct some languages and customs from your failing memory, etc. etc. Wonder why they have mirrors everywhere, though.
Then you ask to access your bank account, and they laugh in your face.
You don't have rights, you disgusting monster.
You're part of the cretinous, self-indulgent generation who nearly ruined our planet, and whose crimes and demeanor are so horrible we can't even contemplate them.
You've already been judged [i]in absentia[/i], and the only reason, the only reason at all you're here, is to help us understand how not to be like you.
You look at the mirrors, and you realize they're two-way.
You're in a zoo. You're never getting out. You don't even know what "out" is like, and you never will.
Good point. I'm going to make another, different post detailing the horrifying yet somewhat plausible idea your comment gave me which "fixes" that oversight.
In the meantime, there's this: you're assuming that in the future, you'll have rights, and agency.
I thought of the premise, decided to expand on it and comment, and then I read this comment.
So...huhh...I'm stealing this? I guess? From the future?
A 3D density map does not reveal the chemical structure by itself.
Since you also have the X-ray spectrogram of the material, you can narrow down the materials that have the same spectrogram but different densities - i.e. organic compounds and water