dschwarz

[Edit, June 20, 2026: Revised forecast from median re-launch July 12 to July 7, based on Trump's June 19 statements and other minor updates from DC.] [Edit, June 23, 2026: Revised forecast from July 7 to July 9. Prediction markets have moved substantially towards the date distribution from the original...

AI 2027 came out a year ago, and in reviewing it now, I saw that AI Futures researchers Daniel Kokotajlo, Eli Lifland, and Nikola Jurkovic had updated their AGI timelines to be later over the course of 2025. Then, in 2026, Daniel and Eli updated in the other direction to...

It's hard to imagine doing web research without using LLMs. Chatbots may be the first thing you turn to for questions like: What are the companies currently working on nuclear fusion and who invested in them? What is the performance gap between open and closed-weight models on the MMLU benchmark?...

Thank you @elifland for reviewing this post. He and AI Futures are planning to publish updates to the AI 2027 Timeline Forecast soon. AI 2027 (also launched in this LW post) forecasts an R&D-based AI takeoff starting with the development of Superhuman Coders[1] within a frontier lab. FutureSearch co-authored the...

[Conflict of interest disclaimer: We are FutureSearch, a company working on AI-powered forecasting and other types of quantitative reasoning. If thin LLM wrappers could achieve superhuman forecasting performance, this would obsolete a lot of our work.] Widespread, misleading claims about AI forecasting Recently we have seen a number of papers...

Disclaimer 1: Our calculations are rough in places; information is sparse, guesstimates abound. Disclaimer 2: This post draws from public info on FutureSearch as well as a paywalled report. If you want the paywalled numbers, email dan@futuresearch.ai with your LW account name and we’ll send you the report for free....

We estimate that, as of June 12, 2024, OpenAI has an annualized revenue (ARR) of: $1.9B for ChatGPT Plus (7.7M global subscribers), $714M from ChatGPT Enterprise (1.2M seats), $510M from the API, and $290M from ChatGPT Team (from 980k seats) (Full report in https://app.futuresearch.ai/reports/3Li1, methods described in https://futuresearch.ai/openai-revenue-report.) We looked...