Because of another stupid thing, which is that U.S. depts & agencies have strong internal regs against employees soliciting and/or accepting gifts other than in carefully carved out exceptional cases. For more on this, see, e.g., 5 CFR § 2635.204, but this isn't the only such reg. In practice U.S. government employees at all levels are broadly prohibited from accepting any gift with a market value above 20 USD for example. (As you'd expect this leads to a lot of weird outcomes, including occasional hilarious minor diplomatic incidents with inexperienced foreign counterparties who have different gift giving norms.)
Yep, can confirm this is true. And this often leads to shockingly stupid outcomes, such as key action officers at the Office of [redacted] in the Department of [redacted] not reading SemiAnalysis because they'd have to pay for their subscriptions out of pocket.
This is a great & timely post.
Thanks very much for writing this. We appreciate all the feedback across the board, and I think this a well done and in-depth write up.
On the specific numerical thresholds in the report (i.e., your Key Proposal section), I do need to make one correction that also applies to most of Brooks's commentary. All the numerical thresholds mentioned in the report, and particularly in that subsection, are solely examples and not actual recommendations. They are there only to show how one can calculate self-consistent licensing thresholds under the principles we recommend. They are not themselves recommendations. We had to do it this way for the same reason we propose granting fairly broad rule-setting flexibility to the regulatory entity. The field is changing so quickly that any concrete threshold risks being out of date (for one reason or the other) in very short order. We would have liked to do otherwise, but that is not a realistic expectation for a report that we expect to be digested over the course of several months.
To avoid precisely this misunderstanding, the report states in several places that those very numbers are, in fact, only examples for illustration. A few screencaps of those disclaimers are below, but there are several others. Of course we could have included even more, but beyond a certain point one is simply adding more length to what you correctly point out is already quite a sizeable document. Note that the Time article, in the excerpt you quoted, does correctly note and acknowledge that the Tier 3 AIMD threshold is there as an example (emphasis added):
the report suggests, as an example, that the agency could set it just above the levels of computing power used to train current cutting-edge models like OpenAI’s GPT-4 and Google’s Gemini.
Apart from this, I do think overall you've done a good and accurate job of summarizing the document and offering sensible and welcome views, emphasis, and pushback. It's certainly a long report, so this is a service to anyone who's looking to go one or two levels deeper than the Executive Summary. We do appreciate you giving it a look and writing it up.
Gotcha, that makes sense!
Looks awesome! Minor correction on the cost of the GPT-4 training run: the website says $40 million, but sama confirmed publicly that it was over $100M (and several news outlets have reported the latter number as well).
Done, a few days ago. Sorry thought I'd responded to this comment.
Excellent context here, thank you. I hadn't been aware of this caveat.
Great question. This is another place where our model is weak, in the sense that it has little to say about the imperfect information case. Recall that in our scenario, the human agent learns its policy in the absence of the AI agent; and the AI agent then learns its optimal policy conditional on the human policy being fixed.
It turns out that this setup dodges the imperfect information question from the AI side, because the AI has perfect information on all the relevant parts of the human policy during its training. And it dodges the imperfect information question from the human side, because the human never considers even the existence of the AI during its training.
This setup has the advantage that it's more tractable and easier to reason about. But it has the disadvantage that it unfortunately fails to give a fully satisfying answer to your question. It would be interesting to see if we can remove some of the assumptions in our setup to approximate the imperfect information case.
Yeah that could be doable. Dylan's pretty natsec focused already so I would guess he'd take a broad view of the ROI from something like this. From what I hear he is already in touch with some of the folks who are in the mix, which helps, but the core goal is to get random leaf node action officers this access with minimum friction. I think an unconditional discount to all federal employees probably does pass muster with the regs, though of course folks would still be paying something out of pocket. I'll bring this up to SA next time we talk to them though, it might move the needle. For all I know, they might even be doing it already.