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I wrote a very brief comment to Eliezer's last post, which upon reflection I thought could benefit from a separate post to fully discuss its implications. Eliezer argues that we shouldn't really hope to be spared even though > Asking an ASI to leave a hole in a Dyson Shell,...

Epistemic status: prima facie unlikely in the usual framework, which I'll try to reframe. Corroborated by loads of empirical observations. YMMV, but if you've held some contrarian view in the past that you came to realize was wrong, this might resonate. In practical (and also not-so-practical) life, we often have...