Obviously the incident when openAI’s voice mode started answering users in their own voices needs to be included- don’t know how I forgot it. That was the point where I explicitly took up the heuristic that if ancient folk wisdom says the Fae do X, the odds of LLMs doing X is not negligible.
intuitively, I would expect any hard coded psychological meta-rule that allows a wife to prevent her husband from day trading significant fractions of their wealth based on facts and logic to be a massive net positive to reproductive fitness over the past 3000 years. It clearly didn’t work this time, but that doesn’t mean it was a bad idea over a population.
Ah- the original set isn’t credal, but taking its hull doesn’t change behavior. Got it.
Checking my understnding: if I look at a knightian urn with 100 balls and believe that the probability could be 55 or 56 but not 55.5 (due to the lack of half balls) then this does not form a credal set, due to lack of convexity?
I strongly recommend mathr (https://mathr.co.uk/web/) for a blog far outside the rat sphere with a "working on a draft for a long time" ethos.
Counterpoint: science-as-she-is-played is extraordinarily robust to, and even thrives on, individuals going off on red-thing-ist tangents. The main requirements are that they do go to the amazon and look for red things, and write down and publish the raw observations that underly their red-thing-ist hypotheses.
From a different angle, they spent something like 8 billion dollars on training compute while training GPT-5, so if GPT-5 was cheap to train, where did the billions go?
It’s a matter of degree. There’s already shrinkage- gpt 4 took nearly a year to release
In a race for clout, they could at any time grab six months from thin air in benchmark graphs by closing the internal-release-external-release gap. No idea if they have made this one time play.
I suspect you are right, however to play devils advocate: in my opinion, the closest example we have of anyone stably aligning a superintelligent creature is housecats aligning humans, and co-opting maternal instinct is a large part of how they did it.