Hzn

I've done ~16 years of academic research work, mostly quantitative or theoretical biology. My other concerns include 1) affective wellbeing, 2) AI consciousness & welfare, 3) possible economic & social fallout from AI.

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Hzn10

For simplicity I'm assuming the activation functions are the step function h(x)=[x>0]…

For ‘backpropagation’ pretend the derivative of this step function is a positive number (A). A=1 being the most obvious choice.

I would also try reverse Hebbian learning ie give the model random input & apply the rule in reverse

“expanding an architecture that works well with one hidden layer and a given learning rule to an architecture with many hidden layers but the same rule universally decreased performance” -- personally I don't find this surprising

NB for h only relative weight matters eg h(5-x+y) = h(0.5-(x-y)/10) so weights going to extreme values effectively decreases the temperature & L1 & L2 penalties may have odd effect

Hzn10

Even as some one who supports moderate tariffs I don't see benefit in reducing the trade deficit per se. Trade deficits can be highly beneficial. The benefit of tariffs is revenue, partial protection from competition, psychological (easier to appreciate), independence to some extent, maybe some other stuff.

On a somewhat different note… Bretton Woods is long defunct. It's unclear to me how much of an impact there is from the dollar being the dominant reserve currency. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves is the only site I could find with any data beyond 1 year. And it seems like USD reserves actually declined between 2019-Q2 & 2024-Q2 from 6.752 trillion to 6.676 trillion.

Hzn30

Do you know of any behavioral experiments in which AI has been offered choices?

Eg choice of which question to answer, option to pass the problem to another AI possibly with the option to watch or over rule the other AI, option to play or sleep during free time etc.

This is one way to at least get some understanding of relative valence.

Hzn30

AI alignment research like other types of research reflects a dynamic which is potentially quite dysfunctional in which researchers doing supposedly important work receive funding from convinced donors which then raises the status of those researchers which makes their claims more convincing and these claims tend to reinforce the idea that the researchers are doing important work. I don't know a good way around this problem. But personally I am far more skeptical of this stuff than you are.

Hzn10

I think super human AI is inherently very easy. I can't comment on the reliability of those accounts. But the technical claims seem plausible.

Hzn*10

I don't completely disagree but there is also some danger of being systematically misleading.

I think your last 4 bullet points are really quite good & they probably apply to a number of organizations not just the World Bank. I'm inclined to view this as an illustration of organizational failure more than an evaluation of the World Bank. (Assuming of course that the book is accurate).

I will say tho that my opinion of development economics is quite low…

Hzn*10

A few key points…

1) Based on analogy with the human brain (which is quite puny in terms of energy & matter) & also based on examination of current trends, merely super human intelligence should not be especially costly.

(It is of course possible that the powerful would channel all AI into some tasks of very high perceived value like human brain emulation, radical life extension or space colonization leaving very little AI for every thing else...)

2) Demand & supply curves are already crude. Combining AI labor & human labor into the same demand & supply curves seems like a mistake.

3) Realistically I suspect that human labor supply will shift to the left b/c of ‘UBI’.

4) Ignoring preference for humans, demand for human labor may also shift to the left as AI entrepreneurs would tend to optimize things around AI.

5) The economy will probably grow quite a bit. And preference for humans is likely substantial for certain types of jobs eg NFL player, runway model etc.

6) Combining 4 & 5 suggests a very steep demand curve for human labor.

7) Combining 3 & 6 suggests that a few people (eg 20% of adults) will have decent paying jobs & the rest will live off of savings or ‘UBI’.

I agree that I initially misread your post. I will edit my other comment.

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