Jalex Stark

Researcher. Currently my biggest interest is in interactive theorem proving and the sociological phenomena around it. See https://leanprover.zulipchat.com/#narrow/stream/113488-general and https://leanprover-community.github.io/

I work as a quant in NYC to stay sane, have access to mentors, and fund my research pursuits. If you're undecided about a quant job, PM me and I am happy to talk. www.jalexstark.com

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Great minds might not think alike

You talk mostly about community-level information gain. I'd like to add that the act of translation is a good way for an individual to generate new insights. In theorem-proving academia, there's a lot of juice to get out of shuttling information back and forth between people in math, physics, CS, and econ departments.

Brainstorming positive visions of AI

Your first sentence came off as quite patronizing, so I wasn't able to do a good-faith reading of the rest of your post.

On Option Paralysis - The Thing You Actually Do

Once you've got a method of exercise you actually do, then you should apply some optimization pressure to making it more fun and safe and rewarding.

Doing discourse better: Stuff I wish I knew

Kialo is some kind of attempt to experiment with the forum dimension stuff.

(EDIT: I don't know how to make external links in the LW dialect of markdown.)

Why GPT wants to mesa-optimize & how we might change this

See GPT-f for combining a transformer model (with pre-trained language weights?) with alphazero style training to learn to prove theorems

microCOVID.org: A tool to estimate COVID risk from common activities

surviving COVID might cost a lot of QALYs from permanent lung and brain damage. It might also cost a lot of future expected earnings for the same reason.

Meaningful Rest

I am likely to remember this string for a while: "at those times I can’t do anything but my default policy".

Forecasting AI Progress: A Research Agenda

People that find this arxiv post interesting may also want to read/listen to this interview by Arden Koehler with Danny Hernandez, who works on the Foresight team at OpenAI. 
https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/danny-hernandez-forecasting-ai-progress/

How much is known about the "inference rules" of logical induction?

I think short timescale behavior of logical induction is model-dependent. I'm not sure whether your first conjecture is true, and I'd guess that it's false in some models. 

I find myself a little confused. Isn't it the case that the probability of statement converges to 1 if and only if it is provable?

How much is known about the "inference rules" of logical induction?

Eigel is asking a specific (purely mathematical!) question about "logical induction", which is defined in the paper they linked to. Your comment seems to miss the question.

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