JanBrauner

Wiki Contributions

Comments

How much do variations in diet quality determine individual productivity?

Hi,

I'm the PI (supervisor) on the replication of the creatine trial. We have finished the trial but not the data entry+analysis. Extremely tentatively, it looks like the effect replicates but with much smaller effect size. If this result remains after data entry+analysis are complete, then I'd say this is a positive update for cognitive benefits of creatine --- given that the prior for this to work was pretty low (publication bias, and so on), I'd say that one trial with a large effect size and one with a small effect size is more convincing than just one with a large effect size.

But really, the result might still change in the process of us double-checking things. It's just my best guess right now. The preprint will hopefully appear in the course of the year.

Disentangling arguments for the importance of AI safety

I struggle to understand the difference between #2 and #3. The prosaic AI alignment problem only exists because we don't know how to make an agent that tries to do what we want it to do. Would you say that #3 is a concrete scenario for how #2 could lead to a catastrophe?