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John Bash — LessWrong

John Bash

John Bash

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I help Metaculus predict future trends.

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John Bash

I help Metaculus predict future trends.

FutureEval Spring Results: Pros Beat Bots, but the Gap is Nearly Gone

by Ben Wilson and John Bash

Main Takeaways Top Findings: * Pro forecasters beat bots but without significance: Our team of 10 Metaculus Pro Forecasters outperformed the top-10 bot team by an average of 1.25 head-to-head points per question. But this edge is small relative to the question-to-question variation and not statistically significant (one-sided p =...

Q2 AI Benchmark Results: Pros Maintain Clear Lead

by Ben Wilson and John Bash

Main Takeaways Top Findings: * Pro forecasters significantly outperform bots: Our team of 10 Metaculus Pro Forecasters demonstrated superior performance compared to the top-10 bot team, with strong statistical significance (p = 0.00001) based on a one-sided t-test on Peer scores. * The bot team did not improve significantly in...

Oct 28, 2025•14