JohnLeslie_PM — LessWrong

I scanned 39 AI companies' DNS records — here's who's verified with Anthropic, who's deploying MCP keys, and whose email you can spoof

DNS records are public. When a company verifies domain ownership with a service provider, that verification lives in their TXT records — visible to anyone who runs dig TXT example.com. These records form a map of vendor relationships that companies may not realize they're broadcasting. I queried the DNS, SSL,...

May 201

How we made 61% on Hormuz in 9 days: a Polymarket case study

Our Hormuz April NO position is worth $803 on a $500 bet. The market closes tomorrow at 0.4%. Nine days ago, it was at 38%. The trade was not a gamble. It was arithmetic. Why the market was wrong On April 20, Hormuz April YES was trading at 38%. The...

Apr 291

Empirical calibration of Polymarket: Analysis of 7,661 resolved binary markets

Summary I analyzed 7,661 resolved binary markets from Polymarket to answer a simple question: when a market trades at X%, does the event actually happen X% of the time? Short answer: Polymarket is well-calibrated at the extremes and shows systematic underpricing in the mid-range, with overall Brier score of 0.025....

Apr 282