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Did anybody calculate the Briers score for per-state election forecasts?

I think this comment would be better placed as a reply to the post that I'm linking. Perhaps you should put it there?

Gifts Which Money Cannot Buy

My summary: Give gifts using the parts of your world-model that are strongest. Usually the answer isn't going to end up being based on your understanding of their hobby.

A simple device for indoor air management

Window AC units don't actually pull air from outside.

A simple device for indoor air management

Hey, I've been looking into air quality quite a bit recently. I have several questions.

What air quality sensor are you using? How are you getting outdoor data?

I suspect some of the confusion in the results may be due to circulation within the home and monitor placement. Have you thought much about circulation?

Additionally, it looks like indoor PM2.5 is tracking outdoor PM2.5. Have you thought much about other sources of ventilation?

interpreting GPT: the logit lens

It doesn't sound hard at all. The things Gwern is describing are the same sort of thing that people do for interpretability where they, eg, find an image that maximizes the probability of the network predicting a target class.

Of course, you need access to the model, so only OpenAI could do it for GPT-3 right now.

TurnTrout's shortform feed

I've was thinking along similar lines!

From my notes from 2019-11-24: "Deontology is like the learned policy of bounded rationality of consequentialism"

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