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Model Stability in Intervention Assessment

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CEA does not seem to be credibly high impact

5y
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32

Meetup Feedback: Topic selection and precommittments

6y
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Meetup : First meetup in Budapest

6y
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Conditioning on Observers

8y
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Recent Comments

Even if it's the case that the statistics are as suggested, it would seem that a highly effective strategy is to ensure that there are multiple adults around all the time. I'll accept your numbers ad arguendo (though I think they're relevantly wrong).

If there's a 4% chance that one adult is an abu...(read more)

> That sounds a rather odd argument to make, even at the time. Astronomy from antiquity was founded on accurate observations.

Astronomy and epistemology aren't quite the same. Predicting where Saturn would be on a given date requires accurate observation, and nobody objected to Coperniucus as a cal...(read more)

The precise phrasing is deliberately a little tendentious, but the issue of the epistemological status of the telescope was raised by loads of people at the time. For a modern review with heavy footnotes, see eg [Galileo, Courtier: The Practice of Science in the Culture of Absolutism, pp 95-100]...(read more)

tl;dr: The side of rationality during Galileo's time would be to recognise one's confusion and recognise that the models did not yet cash out in terms of a difference in expected experiences. That situation arguably holds until Newton's Principia; prior to that no one has a working physics for the h...(read more)

So, my observation is that without meta-distributions (or A_p), or conditioning on a pile of past information (and thus tracking /more/ than just a probability distribution over current outcomes), you don't have the room in your knowledge to be able to even talk about sensitivity to new information ...(read more)

The substantive point here isn't about EU calculations per se. Running a full analysis of everything that might happen and doing an EU calculation on that basis is fine, and I don't think the OP disputes this.

The subtlety is about what numerical data can formally represent your full state of knowl...(read more)

Concretely, I have seen this style of test (for want of better terms, natural language code emulation) used as a screening test by firms looking to find non-CS undergraduates who would be well suited to develop code.

In as much as this test targets indirection, it is comparatively easy to write tes...(read more)

To my knowledge, it's not discussed explicitly in the wider literature. I'm not a statistician by training though, so my knowledge of the literature is not brilliant.

On the other hand, talking to working Bayesian statisticians about "what do you do if we don't know what the model should be" seems ...(read more)

Thank you for calling out a potential failure mode. I observe that my style of inquisition can come across as argumentative, in that I do not consistently note when I have shifted my view (instead querying other points of confusion). This is unfortunate.

To make my object level opinion changes more...(read more)

> Fermat considered the sequence of functions f(n,x) = x^n for n = 0, 1, 2, 3, ....

Only very kind of. Fermat didn't have a notion of function in the sense meant later, and showed geometrically that the area under certain curves could be computed by something akin to Archimedes' method of exhaustio...(read more)