Jordan Arel

Cruxes Decide Future Value I recently came to an important macrostrategy realization. A “crux” or “crucial consideration” (used interchangeably) is some factor which determines a significant portion of how valuable our future is. A classic example is the importance of preventing human extinction, which could clearly be one of the...

What's a crux? A “crux” for short, or “crucial consideration” for long, is an idea that, if understood and acted upon, could significantly shift humanity's trajectory toward better outcomes. These are the golden nuggets that x-risk researchers care about most: insights that bring us closer to averting catastrophes and achieving...

Epistemic status: This was an original note in its raw, unedited form. I can't finish it now, as I am writing a post for the fast-approaching "Essays on Longtermism" competition. It came out not-too-shabby, so I don't feel too bad about it. But I really wish I had time to...

If[1] you’re a Boltzmann brain, you should probably just enjoy the moment. This is probably true not just from an obvious standpoint, but from a moral standpoint as well. If you are a Boltzmann brain, then you will probably more or less instantaneously disintegrate. But there is an absurdly small...

The people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do. ~Steve Jobs The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man. ~George Bernard...

…and you will tell them the story of how once you found the Artifact that gave you mastery of the universe, and you refused to take more than about three minutes figuring out what to use it for, because that would have been annoying. ~Scott Alexander, “In The Balance” Disclaimer:...

Trying to get a rough estimate for some related research I’m doing. Specifically, I’m wondering if anyone could give a rough percentage of current AI safety work primarily targeted toward these two buckets. There may be an overlap with some safety work, and some safety work that doesn’t fit either...