Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models
by Anders Cairns Woodruff, Francis Rhys Ward, Dewi Gould, Rauno Arike, Jason R Brown, Jo Jiao, wlanderson, ariana_azarbal, harrymayne, Patrick Leask, Twm Stone, Josh Hills, Ida Caspary, and Shubhorup Biswas
(see full author list at the end) About a year ago, METR showed that the length of tasks frontier models can reliably complete doubles every few months. A related safety-relevant question is this: what length of tasks can models complete without any chain of thought (CoT)? We investigate in our...
Jun 10151