Wiki Contributions


What Do GDP Growth Curves Really Mean?

We have but one metric of the real, price-independent, value of goods and services: Robin Hanson's polls where he asks "would you own a home but die ten years early" and crap like that. You can compile his Twitter polls into some kind of constraints system and use it to fill in the true value of all things, extrapoterpoinferlating from other would-you-rather style polls. Then get Real Actual GDP

Finite Factored Sets

That misses element 4 right?

>>> from itertools import product
>>> B = [[{0, 1}, {2, 3, 4}], [{0, 2, 3}, {1, 3}]]
>>> list(product(*B))
[({0, 1}, {0, 2, 3}),
({0, 1}, {1, 3}),
({2, 3, 4}, {0, 2, 3}),
({2, 3, 4}, {1, 3})]
>>> [set.intersection(*tup) for tup in product(*B)]
[{0}, {1}, {2, 3}, {3}]
>>> set.union(*[set.intersection(*tup) for tup in product(*B)])
{0, 1, 2, 3}
Finite Factored Sets

Definition paraphrasing attempt / question:

Can we say "a factorization B of a set S is a set of nontrivial partitions of S such that  " (cardinality not taken)? I.e., union(intersect(t in tuple) for tuple in cartesian_product(b in B)) = S. I.e., can we drop the intermediate requirement that each intersection has a unique single element, and only require the union of the intersections is equal to S?

Everyday Lessons from High-Dimensional Optimization

Mm i think "the higher process X is produced by SA" is different drill "the higher process X is implementing SA"

Everyday Lessons from High-Dimensional Optimization

You didn't mean to but you've written a critique of using RCT's to figure out medicine.

Updating the Lottery Ticket Hypothesis

Imagine if you start with 100x stone and kinda quit any piece that doesn't seem to be going pretty well when you half ass it and are not too picky about the final result. That's a rough rough estimate.

How to Play a Support Role in Research Conversations

I think I can be a pretty good duck sometimes but where does that go on my resume? I need to get places with other skills but then i think my real move is duck

Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)

I think crypto markets can't be regulated except by random moderators' filtering on bets and betters' choices of where to put money. It seems someone could put a million dollars against a terrorist attack on a certain date and hope someone bets against it & executes to get the money. So a betting market allows hiring for certain tasks (not most tasks) with reliable verification & payout, and you get your money back if it doesn't happen. I have some faith in moderators' filters, though. I hope they would have the wisdom to forbid bets on terrorist attacks, assassinations, etc. Insider trading cannot be prevented (as far as I can tell) if betting is anonymous…  

Splitting Debate up into Two Subsystems

What about the info helper by itself? Is it much more useful in this context than it would be alone? Rewarding based on human prediction skill seems the best to me. I think Bostrom might have mentioned this problem (educating someone on a topic) somewhere.

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