This is a link post for https://taboo.substack.com/p/modeling-pdoom-with-trojangdp I was listening to a podcast a couple weeks ago about whether AI will destroy humanity. The economist Tyler Cowen made some critical remarks about the AI safety community: > I put out a call and asked a lot of people I know,...
In 1933, the Nazi propagandist, Joseph Goebbels ordered the production of the Volksempfänger. It was a cheap, mass produced radio that allowed Nazi propaganda to be broadcast to poor German families. The slogan was “Every national comrade a radio listener.” It listed cities rather than frequencies to make it harder...
This is a link post for https://taboo.substack.com/p/modeling-pdoom-with-trojangdp
I was listening to a podcast a couple weeks ago about whether AI will destroy humanity. The economist Tyler Cowen made some critical remarks about the AI safety community:
... (read 3681 more words →)I put out a call and asked a lot of people I know, well-informed people, 'Is there any actual mathematical model of this process of how the world is supposed to end?’ So, if you look, say, at covid or climate change fears, in both cases, there are many models you can look at and then models with data. I'm not saying you have to like those models. But the point is there's something you look at and
In 1933, the Nazi propagandist, Joseph Goebbels ordered the production of the Volksempfänger. It was a cheap, mass produced radio that allowed Nazi propaganda to be broadcast to poor German families. The slogan was “Every national comrade a radio listener.” It listed cities rather than frequencies to make it harder to find non-approved stations. Listening to contraband stations was criminalized and eventually became a capital crime. Goebbels later said, “It would not have been possible for us to take power or to use it in the ways we have without the radio...It is no exaggeration to say that the German revolution, at least in the form it took, would have been impossible... (read 2345 more words →)
Thanks for asking. I used a logistic regression on a small dataset of slave revolts I made. It’s very small, so I have low confidence in the result, but I plan on doing a followup with plots of the dataset.