Cross-posted on the EA Forum here Introduction Several developments over the past few months should cause you to re-evaluate what you are doing. These include: 1. Updates toward short timelines 2. The Trump presidency 3. The o1 (inference-time compute scaling) paradigm 4. Deepseek 5. Stargate/AI datacenter spending 6. Increased internal...
There are various different timelines/takeoff dynamics scenarios: Figure 1 In this post, we’re going to set out our understanding of the case for short timelines and slow, continuous takeoff as the safest path to AGI. A few reasons why laying out this case seems worth doing: * OpenAI’s strategy assumes...
Generated by Midjourney Cross-posted to the EA Forum: Three pillars for avoiding AGI catastrophe Epistemic status: This model is loosely inspired by a conversation with Nate Soares but has since warped into something perhaps significantly different from his original intent. I think this model is a useful thinking tool when...
Cross-posted on the EA Forum here
Several developments over the past few months should cause you to re-evaluate what you are doing. These include:
Taken together, these are enough to render many existing AI governance strategies obsolete (and probably some technical safety strategies too). There's a good chance we're entering crunch time and that should absolutely affect your theory of change and what you plan to work on.
In this piece I try to give a quick summary of these developments and think through the broader implications these have for AI safety. At... (read 3622 more words →)
This jogged a lot of thinking about how it fits into various modalities. I think the lack of an actual solution to hostile mind-reading might be a flaw in several modalities I've tried which could be part of why I've struggled to have the progress I made with them stick. Many of these at least point toward alternative methods of dealing with self-deception which could be useful and I think authentic relating suggests at least one idea for an alternative method of occlumency which feels a little more virtuous (definitely felt some aversion to your solutions because of this).
Some reasons why the anti-democratic tendencies might matter:
There are various different timelines/takeoff dynamics scenarios:
In this post, we’re going to set out our understanding of the case for short timelines and slow, continuous takeoff as the safest path to AGI.
A few reasons why laying out this case seems worth doing:
Cross-posted to the EA Forum: Three pillars for avoiding AGI catastrophe
Epistemic status: This model is loosely inspired by a conversation with Nate Soares but has since warped into something perhaps significantly different from his original intent. I think this model is a useful thinking tool when it comes to examining potential interventions to mitigate AI risk and getting a grasp of the problem we face. That said, I’m sure that the model has its flaws - I just haven’t spent enough time to find them.
I’ve tried to write this post so it’s very skimmable (except the hypothetical scenarios section) - reading the first sentence or two of each heading and... (read 3200 more words →)