lunis

Posts

Sorted by New

Comments

Covid 12/31: Meet the New Year

Do you have a source for B.1.1.7 being dominant in Italy/Israel?

Assuming it’s already dominant there, that strongly suggests that it’s infectious enough to have rapidly outcompeted other strains, but that Italy/Israel were able to push down the higher R through some combination of behavioral change and vaccination.

(Note: I can’t find any sources saying B.1.1.7 is dominant in Italy or Israel, and I’d be surprised if that were already the case.)

What are good election betting opportunities?

Is this essentially just giving you leverage in PredictIt?

This process increased my "cash" on PredictIt by $117, but it looks like it will probably pay out around 15/14.75*850 - 850 = $15. If I lost my $117 on some other bet, would my PredictIt balance eventually end up negative?