Do you have a source for B.1.1.7 being dominant in Italy/Israel?
Assuming it’s already dominant there, that strongly suggests that it’s infectious enough to have rapidly outcompeted other strains, but that Italy/Israel were able to push down the higher R through some combination of behavioral change and vaccination.
(Note: I can’t find any sources saying B.1.1.7 is dominant in Italy or Israel, and I’d be surprised if that were already the case.)
Comparing 538 and Economist forecasts in 2020 | Metaculus
Comparing 538 and PredictIt forecasts in 2020 | Metaculus
Is this essentially just giving you leverage in PredictIt?
This process increased my "cash" on PredictIt by $117, but it looks like it will probably pay out around 15/14.75*850 - 850 = $15. If I lost my $117 on some other bet, would my PredictIt balance eventually end up negative?