For all of human history, society has operated under one extremely important constraint: your thoughts are private unless you choose to reveal them. This will soon change. Mindreading is slowly but surely becoming possible. Companies are hard at work making it happen. The point I want to make is so...
I Imagine an alternate version of the Effective Altruism movement, whose early influences came from socialist intellectual communities such as the Fabian Society, as opposed to the rationalist diaspora. Let’s name this hypothetical movement the Effective Samaritans. Like the EA movement of today, they believe in doing as much good...
Hi everyone, I've been reading up on H5N1 this weekend, and I'm pretty concerned. Right now my estimate hunch is that there is a 5% non-zero chance that it will cost more than 10,000 people their lives. To be clear, I think it is unlikely that H5N1 will become a...
Can GPT-3 predict real world events? To answer this question I had GPT-3 predict the likelihood for every binary question ever resolved on Metaculus. Predicting whether an event is likely or unlikely to occur, often boils down to using common sense. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that...