If Omicron really is off in a complete different direction than any of the previous dominant strains, then that is importantly good news. It means that Omicron did not take Alpha, Beta or Delta and then add additional changes to make things worse. Instead, it did different things.
If that’s true, then it means the virus has gotten stuck via hill climbing at various points, and there’s a chance we don’t have to worry as much about Variant A → Variant B → Variant C → Variant D.
Why are the odds higher that a new variant that emerges from the current dominant strain would be more deadly than a new variant that emerged from something else? Especially since the current dominant strain is now Omicron rather than Delta.
I'd say it's rational to maximize expected utility. The small probability of an enormous success could outweigh the larger probability of a failure that won't ruin your life.
I was paraphrasing. I agree it makes sense to trust people when they're talking about things they seem to know more about.
I meant to convey that I was evaluating my trust in the rationalist community, not rationality itself.
And I concluded that the opinions of really successful people is only a minor factor affecting my trust in the rationalist community.
Yeah, "Hot girls excite me!" has been interpreted in ways I didn't intend more often than I expected. I've crossed it out on my about page.
I hadn't thought about your second point before. It's possible you're right. My gut says it could've been boredom and/or loneliness too. I can't remember how I was feeling on that day.
As far as I can remember, I haven't done anything else like searching for the Hungary delegate over the past 4.5 years. And, off the top of my head, I can't think of any other potential unintended consequences of not masturbating. So for now, I don't think it's worth spending more time thinking about it.
Thanks for the feedback. I didn't think the word hot would be interpreted that way.
I felt that the only lesson I learned was that people I interact with are more politically correct than I realized. And they’ll look for ways to misinterpret a statement I meant literally.
The above passage was my initial reaction to Jane's statement. I meant to express that I realized it was reasonable for someone not to take "Hot girls excite me!" as I find some women attractive over the next few paragraphs. I guess I may not have been clear enough.
Also, I didn't mean to convey I preferred underage or immature women by using the term girls.
And in reference to your other comment, I didn't mean to be impolite by the term girls either. I'll try to use the term women to refer to adult females in the future.
I'd think of psychology as a more applied version of neuroscience and the "mind science" I don't think there's a name for.
I think having a theoretical definition helps me. But I agree that I can't precisely measure utility in practice.
I think Anubhav is referring to this lecture. I agree it's a helpful, simpler explanation of VOI too.