Here are the links to the articles from the books. Let me know if there are any mistakes.

Notes:

I didn't find "Do Birth Order Effects Exist?", "Challenges to Christiano's Iterated Amplification Proposal" seems to be only on intelligence.org and "Response to FAQ on Iterated Amplification" seems to be a comment and not a post of it's own.

Great initiative. I'm also surprised at times how many people program without utilizing the full potential of debuggers.

Depending on the line of work, parallelization / performance through matrix multiplication might not matter, though.

The last line says it's free, but you mention it's an ad repeatedly. Maybe clarify if you demand / expect / appreciate payment in the beginning.

Their research is done on the population level, and they consider adverse selection effects somewhat (people with increased risk are more likely to insure against that risk), but it's far from perfect. I've worked in insurance and profited from insurance financially in cases where I expected the insurance to be positive EV beforehand.

Professional experience (Germany):

• Some insurance products run at an (accepted) deficit, as they acquire customers who then buy more (money making) insurance products. Examples: Personal Liability Insurance, Motor vehicle liability
• There is significant friction between the different departments within an insurance and with the insurance agents, causing mispricing from a risk-perspective (some parties care more about raw sales volume).
• Nobody really knows what they are doing.

Personal experience:

• Personal Liability insurance is dirt cheap in Germany and makes money off people who don't report their damages (e.g. will pay for a friend's phone or camera they dropped themselves).
• Insurance for bikes in Berlin. 3 of my bikes were stolen within 3 years and the insurance costing <€100/yr covered all of them.

Nice article! I'm practice you can get positive expected value insurance though, since you know more about your risk (in some cases) than the insurance does. The other way around in some cases the insurance is better at estimating your risk and might "rip you off" if they (correctly) assume you overestimate your risk.

Thanks for the lovely meetup, everyone!

You can contact me about anything here or at https://t.me/truemilli. Please don't hesitate to get in touch if you have criticism or had a bad experience.

Use this formula for anonymous sharing or feedback: https://www.admonymous.co/martin-milbradt

Update: We'll be joining forces with the Qualia Research Institute, who are in Berlin this week: https://qualiacomputing.com/2024/05/17/qri-in-germany/

I think we'll get along great and there's a big overlap. Scott:

The Qualia Research Institute is doing absolutely picture-perfect mad science.

Just an info, nothing actually changes!

Note: Most RSVPs (29 as of now) are on Meetup.

Long survey is long.