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momom2
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AIS student, self-proclaimed aspiring rationalist, very fond of game theory.
"The only good description is a self-referential description, just like this one."
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Kathy Mar wrote Give My Children Wings (recording from Quarks & Quests, originally from Songbird, 1982). It is a beautiful song about how we do not hope for hope, but would rather have the future actually be! Written for the space age, this song resonates with a disillusioned part of...
Epistemic status: shower thoughts. I am currently going through the EA Introductory Course and we discussed two arguments against longtermism which I have not seen elsewhere. So goes a thought experiment: imagine you have toxic waste at hand, which you can process right now at the cost of 100 lives,...
TL;DR: A series of valid bounded arguments all arguing the same proposition can only provide as much evidence as that proposition at best, so even if it looks like they're piling up in favor of a higher point, they're only as good as the most central of them. Epistemic status:...
(Asking for a project which involves collecting data from the major AI companies.) Potential ideas found during a brainstorm: - Threshold on number of parameters of biggest model produced. - Threshold on number of money invested in AI research. - Threshold on revenue. We're looking for a criterion that is...
This document was made as part of my internship at EffiSciences. Thanks to everyone who helped review it, in particular Charbel-Raphaël Segerie, Léo Dana, Jonathan Claybrough and Florent Berthet! Introduction Clarifying AI X-risk is a summary of a literature review of AI risk models by DeepMind that (among other things)...
In Hero Licensing, Eliezer Yudkowsky states that in 2010, he would have given himself 10% chance of HPMoR being very successful. He then goes on to explain why he thought that instead of something lower; but I don't understand why he thought that instead of something higher: given that HPMoR...