cdt

Disclaimer: Not associated with METR. Summary I reanalysed the METR uplift study under a meta-analytic model to estimate the range of plausible effects that we may see in repeated trials. If the average population effect varied as much as medical and economic Randomized Control Trials (RCTs), we would see a...

Summary: Halfway through, AI 2040 argues for an extreme conservation success story. How? Why? We should seek to answer these questions now so we don't make irreversible mistakes. Like many people, I have been hungrily devouring AI 2040 and the discussion around it. I don't have much of a horse...