https://manifold.markets/nikthink/who-will-attend-the-2025-montreal-s-luyRA9nyQ5#

i guess this breaks down if your answer is 0 ad

unclear to me if "If your birthday is an odd number" ment my age or day of month of my birthday or other.

i took the survey ☀️

ive noticed a lot of these markets no one traded on, and thought of the same arguments you listed. did some preemptive strike if betting on them with first mover advantage, a month ago i think.

very good post imo. explaining a common occurrence people have intuition for but with explicit reasoning and clear examples.

perfect timing: "5 min read"

greatly written. so relatable. i really felt like I was living your life for a moment. trapped in 5min tasks. especially the notifications coming in when already 2 levels deep.

this totally tracks with my experience of solstice. people do sing along even if their signing is not great, if they understand the goal is having fun singing together and not signing correctly

Montreal

When: saturday 2025-12-13 18:30
Where: 4243 Rue Clark, Montréal, QC H2W 1X2, Canada

More info: https://www.lesswrong.com/events/XKAiuP3xf6uRjc4xR/montreal-solstice-celebration-2025-dec-13-18-30