ive noticed a lot of these markets no one traded on, and thought of the same arguments you listed. did some preemptive strike if betting on them with first mover advantage, a month ago i think.

very good post imo. explaining a common occurrence people have intuition for but with explicit reasoning and clear examples.

perfect timing: "5 min read"

greatly written. so relatable. i really felt like I was living your life for a moment. trapped in 5min tasks. especially the notifications coming in when already 2 levels deep.

this totally tracks with my experience of solstice. people do sing along even if their signing is not great, if they understand the goal is having fun singing together and not signing correctly

Montreal

When: saturday 2025-12-13 18:30
Where: 4243 Rue Clark, Montréal, QC H2W 1X2, Canada

More info: https://www.lesswrong.com/events/XKAiuP3xf6uRjc4xR/montreal-solstice-celebration-2025-dec-13-18-30

i generally love your posts, but i feel like this one is just a repeat of ugh fields? with more relatable examples.

yes; more petrov day ceremonies .

good luck ☀️

the url for this wikitag is "https://www.lesswrong.com/w/test-2". oops?