Niclas Kupper

The poll has now settled quite a bit. I have been a bit busy and so it took me a bit longer than expected to write this up – but without further ado let us look at some of the results. Over the past month 74 people voted, 70 people were grouped, and 2,095 votes were cast, with 55 statements submitted. I will briefly list some of the result together with some of my own thoughts, but if you want more detail go look at the auto-generated report. Some Results We will look at some of the majority opinions first, that is, statements that most people agree (or disagree) with. We weigh both percentage and number of people voted. All number can be found in the report. * Corporate or academic labs are likely to build AGI before any state actor does. (75% Agree, 18% Pass) * I believe there needs to be a bigger focus on technical research (64% Agree, 30% passed) * AI-to-human safety is fundamentally the same kind of problem as any interspecies animal-to-animal cooperation problem (70% disagree, 12% passed) * I think it is most likely the first AGI will be developed in a leading AI lab, but still plausible it will be developed by a smaller group (65% Agree, 17% Passes) * A sufficiently large AI-related catastrophe could potentially motivate the US government to successfully undertake a pivotal act. (60% Agree, 21% Passed) Opinion Groups Pol.is automatically generates opinion groups based on similar voting patterns. In this case the algorithm identified two groups A and B. They can roughly be identified with group A believing that AGI will come soon and will be very dangerous, whereas group B believes that AGI will take some time and be only somewhat dangerous. (During the voting there were three stable groups for a while, where the third group roughly believed that AGI will come soon, but won't be that dangerous. ) So let us see what beliefs makes group A special. The most important one is that "[they] think the probability of AGI before 2040 is above 50%". Ninety