Excerpt below, but read the (not much longer) full thing for the part involving Kolmogorov complexity. I suspect reading the full thing is better than reading the excerpt first for most people, in expectation. It's not that much longer. > As a man who has lived in both Israel and...
Epistemic status: This point isn't novel (it's one of the the ten commandments of superforecasting, more or less), but it's often underappreciated. Crossposted here. I went out of my way to make two explicit predictions about covid over the course of the pandemic. The first, back around January 2020, was...
Epistemic status: This seems sufficiently basic that it seems like someone would already have developed a general theory, but I haven’t managed to find anything. If you know of anything like this please let me know. This post copied over from here. Say you want to make some really good...
I’ve always found the concept of Freedom confusing. There’s a level on which it makes sense. When William Wallace is talking about being free from the yoke of Edward Longshanks, it’s obvious what he means – the English king and his goons regularly come to town, order people around, take...
(The following are our suggestions for what kind of information is best to include in the welcome post of your group, feel free to replace them with whatever you think is best) What kind of events does your group usually run? What does it usually do? How frequently does your...
(Contains major Unsong spoilers.) A while ago I made the argument that if we assume God only allows the universe to exist if it contains net positive good, and we assume the goodness of a universe is normally distributed, most universes are probably kind meh (since they're clustered around the...
I told a bunch of people I'd post this idea here when I was writing it, then procrastinated on that. So here it is in all its glory. (Epistemic Status: Silly. Read at your own risk of wasting time).