A common challenge in self-improvement and rational decision-making is bridging the gap between qualitative experiences – our feelings, intuitions, and subjective reflections – and the quantitative analysis we often use to understand the external world. We rely on gut feelings, which are notoriously susceptible to biases, or on anecdotal evidence, which can be unreliable. This post explores a framework for systematically analyzing our internal data stream, drawing inspiration from Bayesian reasoning and vector space models, to extract more reliable insights about our own thoughts and behaviors, and to connect those insights to our stated goals. The aim isn't to replace intuition, but to augment it – to become more aware of the "priors" that shape our perceptions, and to use that awareness to move more effectively towards our desired outcomes.

This is relevant to LessWrong because it tackles a fundamental problem in rationality: how do we make better use of the vast, often messy, data of our own lives? By applying techniques usually reserved for external data to our internal world, we might uncover hidden biases, identify recurring patterns, and make decisions more aligned with our values and goals. It's not about achieving perfect objectivity (an impossible goal), but about increasing the signal-to-noise ratio of our self-understanding, leading to more effective action.

Beyond the Blank Page: The Limits of Traditional Journaling

Traditional journaling, while valuable for capturing thoughts and feelings, often suffers from a lack of systematic review and connection to broader goals. We write, but rarely revisit in a way that allows for objective pattern recognition or helps us understand how our daily experiences relate to our long-term aspirations. It's like having a powerful telescope but never pointing it at the most interesting parts of the sky, or having a rush of tasks without much pause. We might be skimming the surface, missing connections, and failing to see how our actions (or inactions) are impacting our progress.

Alice and the Procrastination Puzzle: The Power of Simple Quantification

Imagine someone, let's call her Alice, consistently journals about feeling overwhelmed and procrastinating on important tasks. She also sets a goal in her system: "Become a more effective project manager." She writes about feeling guilty about procrastination,...

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