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Randall Reams

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11mo

The Principle of Satisfying Foreknowledge

I introduce and formally derive the Principle of Satisfying Foreknowledge (PSF) using Causal Decision Theory (CDT). This principle states that if an agent has knowledge of its future, then that foreknowledge must depict a future that is at least satisfying, in the sense that any deviation would lead to lower...

Mar 22, 2025•1

Randall Reams

11mo

Randall Reams — LessWrong

Randall Reams

Message

11mo

The Principle of Satisfying Foreknowledge

Mar 22, 2025•1

Randall Reams

11mo

The Principle of Satisfying Foreknowledge

Randall Reams

11mo

I introduce and formally derive the Principle of Satisfying Foreknowledge
(PSF) using Causal Decision Theory (CDT). This principle states that if an agent has knowledge of its future, then that foreknowledge must depict a future that is at least satisfying, in the sense that any deviation would lead to lower expected utility.

Formally, let:
• $A$ be the set of possible actions.
• $O$ be the set of possible outcomes.
• $u : A \times O \to R$ be the agent’s utility function.
• $P (a > o)$ be the probability of outcome $o$ given that the agent causally intervenes
to choose action $a$ .
The agent maximizes expected utility:

$E U (a) = \sum_{o \in O} P (a > o) u (a, o) .$

Assume an agent receives foreknowledge that it will take action $a^{*}$ and that this will result in outcome $o^{*}$ . That is, the agent knows:

$P (a^{*} > o^{*}) = 1.$

Because this is true, any... (read 444 more words →)