Epistemic status: thinking out loud. I think a major incident of autonomous AI replication in the wild before the end of 2027 is reasonably likely. In this post, I explain the reasons why I think so. What is AI replication? I broadly follow the terminology used by METR and RepliBench...
I co-authored the original arXiv paper here with Dmitrii Volkov as part of work with Palisade Research. The internet today is saturated with automated bots actively scanning for security flaws in websites, servers, and networks. According to multiple security reports, nearly half of all internet traffic is generated by bots,...
I recently explored whether we could predict major AI releases by analyzing the Twitter activity of OpenAI's red team members. While the results weren't conclusive, I wanted to share this approach in case it inspires others to develop it further. The Core Idea The idea came from side-channel analysis -...