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Nice!! I don't know much about that moisturizer but the rest looks good to me


Seems like the evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of sunscreen, the studies I've seen against it generally seem to not address the obvious confounder that people who tend to wear sunscreen more are also the ones who have a lifestyle that involves being in the sun a lot more.

  • I used to get breakouts maybe like once a month, sometimes with really stubborn/painful zits that would take quite a long time to disappear. Now I basically never get breakouts, I think I've had like 2 small zits since I started and they have disappeared quickly. I have not had any big painful ones.
  • My fine lines have been reduced, my skin looks and feels smoother and softer
  • I had some redness/discoloration in some areas which has been reduced a lot - no longer needs to be covered with makeup

Dermatica prompts you to send them photos every few months so they can check how your skin is reacting, but it's also convenient because you can look back and see the improvement.

Very helpful, thank you for the extra detail!

It says to reapply every two hours but I... do not do that 😅 I put it on in the morning and would reapply if I was spending time outside. I don't know how important the "every 2 hours" thing is

Oh nice! My retinoid formula and moisturizer have hyaluronic acid mixed in so it's hard for me to isolate its effects, but a lot of people seem to find it hugely beneficial

Answer by rosiecam6120

I did a bunch of research on this a while ago, here are my high-level conclusions:

  • This video is worth watching: Ali Abdaal’s “My evidence-based skincare routine
  • Sunscreen and retinoids get you almost all the way there.
  • Sunscreen:
    • Wear it on your face everyday. 
    • Most sunscreen feels horrible and slimy (especially in the US where the FDA has not yet approved the superior formulas available in Europe and Asia). 
    • The best is Elta MD (UV Clear Tinted Face Sunscreen, SPF 46 Tinted Sunscreen with Zinc Oxide). It’s expensive, but it feels fine on your face, and so you’re more likely to actually use it. And since it’s only going on your face you only need a little bit so it lasts a while.
  • Retinoids (vitamin A):
    • Retinols are the diluted form of retinoids that you can buy over the counter. They are basically too weak to do much, probably not worth your money.
    • The exception to this is adapalene, a new-ish synthetic retinoid you can buy over the counter such as in the form of Differin gel. Adapalene seems to be effective and less irritating than other retinoids, but has mostly been studied for acne rather than anti-aging, so there’s just less evidence at the moment. Definitely a good place to start though.
    • Tretinoin is the form of retinoid that is best known for anti-aging. It’s only available with a prescription, but it’s easy to get one. You can either ask your doctor for a referral for a dermatologist, or you can use an online service like Curology or Dermatica, where you send photos, then they create a custom skincare formula that they send you every month - make sure to say you want it to include tretinoin. I use Dermatica and am very happy with it.
    • You have to ramp up slowly with tretinoin to avoid skin irritation. If you use Curology or Dermatica they will gradually increase your concentration over time so you don’t need to worry about it. The max they go to by default is 0.05%, but I asked to go up to 0.1% when I was ready. 
    • Only use retinoids at night since they don’t play well with sunlight.
    • A bit of irritation at first is normal (in fact, some say if you don’t experience *any* irritation your retinoid is not strong enough). You can manage this by using it only every other day, or layering it with moisturizers.
    • It takes about 6-8 weeks of regular use to start seeing benefits. I've been using it for over a year and I cannot believe how much better my skin is now compared to before I started. 
  • Other stuff that may be worth trying (but I am less confident in, and is probably dwarfed by the effects of sunscreen + retinoid):
    • Niacinamide: A form of vitamin B3, benefits include minimizing pores, evening skin tone, and reducing signs of aging.
    • Ceramides: Lipids that occur naturally in your skin and help keep the skin's barrier healthy. Adding more can help restore moisture and prevent irritation.
    • Vitamin C: An antioxidant that can protect the skin from damage, brighten it, and stimulate collagen production. Works best at a lower PH so good to use alongside an acid.
    • Salicylic acid: A chemical exfoliator that unclogs pores, reduces inflammation, and is antimicrobial (avoid physical exfoliators (e.g. with microbeads), they can damage the skin).
    • Hyaluronic acid: Retains moisture, keeps skin plump.
  • Moisturizers are worth using, but not the fancy ones. 
    • CeraVe Moisturizing Cream is cheap and great, you can use it on your face and body. It contains hyaluronic acid and ceramides, it’s fragrance free, and non-comedogenic, meaning it won’t clog your pores.
    • As far as I can tell there’s no need to use a separate eye cream, it’s a marketing gimmick. A gentle, rich moisturizer like the CeraVe one is perfectly fine. Just wear sunscreen and sunglasses to help reduce eye wrinkles.

Thanks I appreciate that :) And I apologize if my comment about probability being weird came across as patronizing, it was meant to be a reflection on the difficulty I was having putting my model into words, not a comment on your understanding

Ok this confirms you haven't understood what I'm claiming. If I gave a list of predictions that were my true 50% confidence interval, they would look very similar to common wisdom because I'm not a superforecaster (unless I had private information about a topic, e.g. a prediction on my net worth at the end of the year or something). If I gave my true 50% confidence interval, I would be indifferent to which way I phrased it (in the same way that if I was to predict 10 coin tosses it doesn't matter whether I predict ten heads, ten tails, or some mix of the two).

From what I can tell from your examples, the list of predictions you proposed sending to me would not have represented your true 50% confidence intervals each time - you could have sent me 5 things you are very confident will come true and 5 things you are very confident won't come true. It's possible to fake any given level of calibration in this way.

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