cross-posted to EA Forum
We’re giving out $4,000 to the best forecast writeups submitted via this form on these Metaculus questions by March 11 to encourage more people to forecast on impactful questions and write up their reasoning.
We believe that forecasting on impactful questions is a great candidate for an activity more EA-interested people should partake in, given that it:
This is informed by personal experience: we have learned a lot and found great collaborators through forecasting.
However, it’s difficult to start doing impactful forecasting right now. Metaculus has...
I've been doing this for the past few weeks and just wanted to note that there is potentially a selection effect going on here. Quite simply: the drunker I am, the less likely I am to remember to take the capsule. I take it when I am slightly drunk, but not so drunk that I forget to take the capsule. I'm currently writing this comment slightly drunk after having taken one capsule, but not so drunk that I've fallen asleep in bed straight away like I do when I am sure to have a hangover!