I guess it's hard to keep "they are experimenting with / building huge amounts of tanks" and "they are conducting combined arms exercises" secret from France and Russia, so they would have a lot of advance warning and could then also develop tanks.

But if you have lot more than a layman's understanding of tank design / combined arms doctrine, you could still come out ahead in this.

 "6. f6" should be "6. h3".

Microsoft is the sort of corporate bureaucracy where dynamic orgs/founders/researchers go to die. My median expectation is that whatever former OpenAI group ends up there will be far less productive than they were at OpenAI.

I'm a bit sceptical of that. You gave some reasonable arguments, but all of this should be known to Sam Altman, and he still chose to accept Microsoft's offer instead of founding his own org (I'm assuming he would easily able to raise a lot of money). So, given that "how productive are the former OpenAI folks at Microsoft?" is the crux of the argument, it seems that recent events are good news iff Sam Altman made a big mistake with that decision.

I'm confused by this statement. Are you assuming that AGI will definitely be built after the research time is over, using the most-plausible-sounding solution?

Or do you believe that you understand NOW that a wide variety of approaches to alignment, including most of those that can be thought of by a community of non-upgraded alignment researchers (CNUAR) in a hundred years, will kill everyone and that in a hundred years the CNUAR will not understand this?

If so, is this because you think you personally know better or do you predict the CNUAR will predictably update in the wrong direction? Would it matter if you got to choose the composition of the CNUAR?

Another big source of potential volunteers: People who are going to be dead soon anyway. I'd probably volunteer if I knew that I'm dying from cancer in a few weeks anyway.

${\text{argmax}}_R\left(\sin \right)=\{2k+\frac{\pi }{2}|k\in Z\}$

Typo: This should be ${\text{argmax}}_R\left(\sin \right)=\{2\pi k+\frac{\pi }{2}|k\in Z\}$.
 

after 17... dxc6 or 17. c6

This should probably be "after 17... cxd6 or 17... c6".

I suspect Wave refers to this company: https://www.wave.com/en/ (they are connected to EA)

Planecrash is a glowfic co-written by Yudkowsky: https://glowficwiki.noblejury.com/books/planecrash

Seconding the recommendation of the rest in motion post, it has helped me with a maybe-similar feeling.

I don't believe these "practical" problems ("can't try long enough") generalize enough to support your much more general initial statement. This doesn't feel like a true rejection to me, but maybe I'm misunderstanding your point.