Colonization models: a programming tutorial (Part 1/2)
Introduction Are we alone in the universe? How likely is our species to survive the transition from a Type 0 to a Type II civilization? The answers to these questions would be of immense interest to our race; however, we have few tools to reason about these questions. This does not stop us from wanting to find answers to these questions, often by employing controversial principles of inference such as 'anthropic reasoning.' The reader can find a wealth of stimulating discussion about anthropic reasoning at Katja Grace's blog, the site from which this post takes its inspiration. The purpose of this post is to give a quantitatively oriented approach to anthropic reasoning, demonstrating how computer simulations and Bayesian inference can be used as tools for exploration. The central mystery we want to examine is the Fermi paradox: the fact that 1. we are an intelligent civilization 2. we cannot observe any signs that other intelligent civilizations ever existed in the universe One explanation for the Fermi paradox is that we are the only intelligent civilization in the universe. A far more chilling explanation is that intelligent civilizations emerge quite frequently, but that all other intelligent civilizations that have come before us ended up destroying themselves before they could manage to make their mark on their universe. We can reason about which of the above two explanations are more likely if we have the audacity to assume a model for the emergence and development of civilizations in universe 'similar to ours.' In such a model, it is usually useful to distinguish different 'types' of civilizations. Type 0 civilizations are civilizations with similar levels of technology as ourselves. If a Type 0 civilization survives long enough and accumulates enough scientific knowledge, it can make a transition to a Type I civilization--a civilization which has attained mastery of their home planet. A Type I civilization, over time, can transition to a Ty
Thanks for the link MakoYass.
I am familiar with the concept of superrationality, which seems similar with what you are describing. The lack of special relationship between observer moments--let's call it non-continuity--is also a common concept in many mystical traditions. I view both of these concepts as different than the concept of unity, "we are all one".
Superrationality combines a form of unity with a requirement for rationality. I could think that "we are all one" without thinking that we should behave rationally. If I thought, "we are all one" and and also that "one ought to be rational", the behavior that results might be described as superrational.
Non-continuity is orthogonal... (read more)