The scientific method is wonderfully simple, intuitive, and above all effective. Based on the available evidence, you formulate several hypotheses and assign prior probabilities to each one. Then, you devise an experiment which will produce new evidence to distinguish between the hypotheses. Finally, you perform the experiment, and adjust your probabilities accordingly.
So far, so good. But what do you do when you cannot perform any new experiments?
This may seem like a strange question, one that leans dangerously close to unprovable philosophical statements that don't have any real-world consequences. But it is in fact a serious problem facing the field of cosmology. We must learn that when there is no new evidence that will cause you to... (read 1110 more words →)
Three years late, but: there doesn't even have to be an error. The Gatekeeper still loses for letting out a Friendly AI, even if it actually is Friendly.