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Humanity Has A Possible 99.98% Chance Of Extinction

The Black Ball Hypothesis states that humanity’s journey through technological progress can be likened to drawing balls from an urn—a metaphor for the unpredictable nature of discovery and innovation. Some balls are white, representing technologies that uplift civilization (e.g., antibiotics, electricity). Others are grey, carrying both promise and peril (e.g.,...

Feb 2, 2025-12

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Humanity Has A Possible 99.98% Chance Of Extinction

The Black Ball Hypothesis states that humanity’s journey through technological progress can be likened to drawing balls from an urn—a metaphor for the unpredictable nature of discovery and innovation. Some balls are white, representing technologies that uplift civilization (e.g., antibiotics, electricity). Others are grey, carrying both promise and peril (e.g.,...

Feb 2, 2025-12

Humanity Has A Possible 99.98% Chance Of Extinction

st3rlxx

1y

The Black Ball Hypothesis states that humanity’s journey through technological progress can be likened to drawing balls from an urn—a metaphor for the unpredictable nature of discovery and innovation. Some balls are white, representing technologies that uplift civilization (e.g., antibiotics, electricity). Others are grey, carrying both promise and peril (e.g., nuclear energy, social media). And then there are the black balls—discoveries so inherently dangerous that they threaten the very fabric of existence. For millennia, humanity has drawn mostly white and grey balls, navigating their complexities with varying degrees of success. But now, as we approach the day of creating Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), we have drawn another ball—this time, blindfolded. We do not... (read 1313 more words →)

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