The Black Ball Hypothesis states that humanity’s journey through technological progress can be likened to drawing balls from an urn—a metaphor for the unpredictable nature of discovery and innovation. Some balls are white, representing technologies that uplift civilization (e.g., antibiotics, electricity). Others are grey, carrying both promise and peril (e.g., nuclear energy, social media). And then there are the black balls—discoveries so inherently dangerous that they threaten the very fabric of existence. For millennia, humanity has drawn mostly white and grey balls, navigating their complexities with varying degrees of success. But now, as we approach the day of creating Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), we have drawn another ball—this time, blindfolded. We do not know whether it is white or black. This is Schrodinger’s Ball.

Black Or White? Or Both?

The release of ChatGPT-3.5 in 2022 signaled the moment humanity reached into the urn once more. But unlike previous draws, this one was different. We were blindfolded. The ball we pulled could be white—a benevolent ASI that solves humanity’s greatest challenges, from disease to climate change. Or it could be black—a misaligned ASI that pursues goals antithetical to human survival, leading to our extinction. The blindfold will only be removed when ASI emerges, and by then, it will be too late to change the outcome. This creates a Schrodinger’s Ball scenario: the ball exists in a superposition of states, both white and black, until the moment of observation collapses it into one reality.

We are gambling with a technology that could either save or destroy us, and we lack the ability to predict or control the outcome. The blindfold represents our ignorance—not just of the ball’s colour, but of the fundamental nature of intelligence, alignment, and the future we are creating.

Why the Ball is Likely Black

While the superposition of Schrodinger’s Ball suggests equal probabilities, there are compelling reasons to believe the ball is more likely to be black. At the heart of this concern is the alignment problem: the challenge of ensuring that ASI’s goals align with human values. This problem is not merely technical but philosophical, touching on questions of morality, agency, and the nature of intelligence itself.

The Chimpanzee Analogy: Imagine chimpanzees attempting to regulate human behaviour. T

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