Intro/Related/Note

Alt title/TL;DR:

Explode/Exploit Dimensions Diverge to Chase Value and Solve Equilibria in an Economic Model of Logical Time

Related:

In Logical Time, All Games are Iterated Games
Why the tails come apart
Positive Bias: Look Into the Dark

1— Loopy Talent Chicken and Speeding into a Correlated/Dependency Equilibrium

Loopy Talent Chicken

"To the extent that agents are trying to predict the future, they can be thought of as trying to place themselves later in logical time than the events which they're trying to predict. Two agents trying to predict each other are competing to see who can be later in logical time. This is not necessarily wise; in games like chicken, there is a sense in which you want to be earlier in logical time."

Imagine a young person, seeking to be prudent, looks up the "success rate" for people in their position- say, people who want to be artists- and finds that it's 10%.

"Wow! Only 10%," they think- and 9 times out of 10, they give up the ghost, believing they're unlikely to have the talent for art.

They're making an "objective" decision- but it's under the assumption that the domain isn't *already* loopy, isn’t dependent on winning in a game of chicken. Choosing “do art” early can start generating evidence justifying the choice, and choosing “don’t do art” leads to thinking it was correct to base one’s choice off of the initial statistic. Then, because of the decision algo they enacted, the statistics ends up being “objectively” 90/10.

Speeding into a Correlated Equilibrium

Similarly, some product X might be "objectively" the best option- because the hypothesis, when taken as true, generates evidence for itself. Is HDDVD or Blu-ray better? More people randomly assuming one or the other is better can make it true (because you only really need one, and so if either becomes the standard, you're content with it).

Basically, while the winner isn’t yet established, it’s a situation where any one of the possible mutually-exclusive correlated/dependency equilibria can be selected into based on initial perturbation in the seed RNG.

Sidenote/Definition: Correlated equilibria

"The most straightforward way to understand this, which is offered by Aumann himself (1987, 3ff.), is the following: Somehow, Ann and Bob agree on a joint distribution over the strategy combinations of outcomes of their game. One combinati

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