I think there could be compelling reasons to prioritise Earning To Give highly, depending on one's options. This is a "hot takes" explanation of this claim with a request for input from the community. This may not be a claim that I would stand by upon reflection.

I base the argument below on a few key assumptions, listed below. Each of these could be debated in their own right but I would prefer to keep any discussion of them outside this post and its comments. This is for brevity and because my reason for making them is largely a deferral to people better informed on the subject than I. The Intelligence Curse by Luke Drago is a good backdrop for this.

Whether or not we see AGI or Superintelligence, AI will have significantly reduced the availability of white-collar jobs by 2030, and will only continue to reduce this availability.
AI will eventually drive an enormous increase in world GDP.
The combination of these will produce a severity of wealth inequality that is both unprecedented and near-totally locked-in.

If AI advances cause white-collar human workers to become redundant by outperforming them at lower cost, we are living in a dwindling window in which one can determine their financial destiny. Government action and philanthropy notwithstanding, one's assets may not grow appreciably again once their labour has become replaceable. An even shorter window may be available for starting new professions as entry-level jobs are likely the easiest to automate and companies will find it easier to stop hiring people than start firing them.

That this may be the fate of much of humanity in the not-too-distant future seems really bleak. While my ear is not the closest to the ground on all things AI, my intuition is that humanity will not have the collective wisdom to restructure society in time to prevent this leading to a technocratic feudal hierarchy. Frankly, I'm alarmed that having engaged with EA consistently for 7+ years I've only heard discussion of this very recently. Furthermore, the Trump Administration has proven itself willing to use America's economic and military superiority to pressure other states into arguably exploitative deals (tariffs, offering Ukraine security guarantees in exchange for mineral resources) and shed altruistic commitments (foreign aid). My assumption is that if this Administration, or a similar successor, oversaw the unvei...

Posts

Wikitag Contributions

Comments